Locunity/United Nations·Intergovernmental Body
Independent, nonpartisan membership organization and think tank focused on international affairs and the foreign policy choices facing the United States. Its meetings bring policymakers, researchers and other experts together to discuss global developments.
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Panelists said China absorbed lost discounted oil via export bans, price caps and a 1.4 billion barrel stockpile, but a Hormuz supply gap persists.
Why it matters: Doshi said rising Chinese imports since June will gradually push up global oil prices, and China's stockpile gives it new market leverage.
Liu said Beijing will not materially support U.S. sanctions on Iran, though major Chinese banks avoid Iran fearing secondary sanctions and loss of dollar access.
Why it matters: Liu suggested Washington could get results by urging China to enforce its own anti-money-laundering rules against small banks and Iranian front companies.
Sachs and Doshi said Chinese pressure on Taiwan has not eased, rating gray-zone risk high and rising and flagging 2028 as especially dangerous.
Why it matters: The analysts warned the Trump–Xi thaw has not reduced coercion around Taiwan and may embolden Beijing in the gray zone during Trump's final year.
Sachs said Beijing's new 'persist in the correct position' language signals it believes Trump already shifted on Taiwan and aims to delay arms sales.
Why it matters: Sachs warned that if the arms package is not notified to Congress early in 2027, delivery delays for Taiwan's defense capabilities will compound.
Duffy argued Chinese open-weight models are outpacing U.S. models in usage; Maguire countered that frontier capability and enterprise revenue still favor America.
Why it matters: How the AI race is measured shapes export-control and safety policy; Duffy warned that without trusted U.S. standards, reliance on American models is unclear.
Liu said Chinese tech firms skipped the state dinner because securitized rivalry and new domestic financing reduce their need for U.S. suppliers and capital.
Why it matters: The moderator noted the contrast with U.S. CEOs eager for Chinese market access, signaling an asymmetry in commercial dependence.
The U.S. and China announced an AI risk dialogue and an informal hotline, which Maguire called realistic and Doshi called weaker than 2023 progress.
Why it matters: Panelists disagreed on whether the minimal AI outcome was the ceiling or a missed chance, with Doshi noting the 2023 Woodside commitments went further.
Doshi traced a pattern of Trump flattering Xi and argued the 2025 tariff retreat after China's rare earths move shaped today's asymmetric relationship.
Why it matters: The framing suggests Beijing expects to keep extracting concessions through Trump's term while both sides keep imposing quiet restrictions on each other.
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