Mexico's Top Diplomat Claims Historic Crime Drop, Presses US on Migrant Deaths
Council on Foreign Relations • United NationsSeptember 25, 2026
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Mexico's Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco Alvarez laid out an ambitious defense of the Sheinbaum administration's record on security, trade, and diplomacy during a wide-ranging session at the Council on Foreign Relations on Sept. 25 — claiming a 50%-plus reduction in homicides while demanding US accountability for 17 Mexican nationals who died in immigration detention.
- Mexico reports the largest homicide decline in its history — over 50% — under President Sheinbaum, with 2,700+ drug labs dismantled and 200+ priority targets arrested
- USMCA revision and Section 232 tariff talks continue without a deal, as Mexico pushes for longer-term trade certainty
- Mexico demands US investigation into 17 Mexican nationals who died in ICE detention; no concrete results to date
- Energy sector opens to mixed foreign investment under new legal framework, marking a departure from prior resource nationalism
- South Korea state visit — the first in 16 years — produces 17 MOUs on aerospace, AI, customs, and cultural exchange
- Mexico maintains independent China ties while using Plan México to reduce Asian import dependence
- Mexico backed Michelle Bachelet for UN Secretary-General before her withdrawal, now reassessing candidates
Cooperation Without Subordination: Mexico's Security Gamble
Foreign Minister Velasco Alvarez devoted more time to security than any other subject, mounting a data-heavy rebuttal to US Secretary of State Rubio's assertion that Mexico's efforts against organized crime are "not nearly enough."
Why it matters: Mexico is offering a sovereignty-first security model as an explicit alternative to the Trump administration's Shield of the Americas militarized framework — and claiming measurable results that no other country in the region can match.
Where things stand: Velasco presented sweeping statistics: homicide rates down more than 50%, nearly every crime category trending downward, more than 2,700 drug labs dismantled, and over 60,000 arrests including 200-plus priority targets. He pointed to the neutralization of Rubén Oseguera, known as El Mencho, as a model of US-Mexico cooperation in which the US provided intelligence while Mexican forces operated on Mexican soil.
"In terms of the homicide rate, it has decreased around 50%, over 50%, which is historic. It's the largest decrease that we've seen at any point in our history," said Foreign Minister Velasco Alvarez.
He framed the philosophy behind this approach as "cooperation without subordination, which means that we will, of course, cooperate with the United States and other international partners. But there are things that correspond to the Mexican government to decide, correspond to Mexican authorities to act on our territory."
The other side: Missy Ryan of The Atlantic pressed Velasco on whether Mexico is becoming an outlier as "more and more nations in Latin America joining the Trump administration in their hardline and militarized approach to crime and drugs, namely with the Shield of the Americas." Velasco did not concede the point. He contrasted Mexico's declining crime indicators with what he described as worsening conditions in Ecuador, where he said every crime indicator is rising despite its adoption of the militarized model.
CFR member David Braunschwig asked how President Sheinbaum's approach differs from her predecessor's. Velasco cited Sheinbaum's environmentalist credentials, a new national intelligence system law, and improved intergovernmental coordination on security — suggesting the current administration has built institutional capacity that AMLO's more personalized style lacked.
Decisions: No bilateral agreements were announced, but Velasco's presentation amounted to a public case that Mexico's model is delivering superior results without ceding sovereignty — a message directed as much at Washington as at the CFR audience.
17 Deaths, No Answers: Migration Becomes a Bilateral Flashpoint
Why it matters: The deaths of 17 Mexican nationals in US immigration detention or during enforcement operations have emerged as one of the most sensitive points in the bilateral relationship, with Mexico demanding accountability and receiving none.
Where things stand: Ida Sawyer of Human Rights Watch raised the issue directly, noting that her organization "appreciate[s] the calls by you and other members of your government for investigations into the 17 deaths of Mexican nationals who died in immigration detention or were killed during enforcement operations."
Velasco called the situation alarming: "We find dramatic, this increase in the deaths of our citizens that are being detained or under custody of ICE. We have expressed this to the State Department. We have expressed this to the Department of Homeland Security." He said US federal and local authorities have pledged to investigate but have shared no concrete results.
Economist Paul Sheard asked about the broader migration picture. Velasco reported that irregular migration at both the US-Mexico border and Mexico's southern border is at its lowest point in decades, attributing this partly to US-Mexico cooperation. He described the "Mexico Te Abraza" program — providing social services, healthcare, and job access to Mexican nationals returned from the United States — as a new safety net built for this moment.
Velasco stated Mexico's position in unequivocal terms: "For us, migration should not be a crime. For us, there should always be respect for human rights in all the process of enforcing migration laws."
What's next: The absence of US investigative results leaves this issue unresolved. If accountability does not materialize, these cases could strain the broader migration cooperation framework that both governments credit for the decline in border crossings.
Trade Talks Grind On: USMCA Revision Without Resolution
Why it matters: The USMCA revision and parallel Section 232 tariff negotiations will determine the rules governing the largest trade corridor in the Western Hemisphere for at least the next decade.
Where things stand: Shannon O'Neill, Senior Vice President of Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, opened by noting the paradox of rising foreign direct investment alongside declining overall investment levels in Mexico. Velasco attributed the gap to a typical transition lag under new administrations, saying government projects take time to mature and both domestic and foreign investment have since recovered.
On trade, Velasco described two simultaneous negotiation tracks: one addressing existing Section 232 tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, and another on the formal USMCA revision focused on rules of origin and economic security. He said Mexico broadly agrees with the US objective of strengthening North American supply chains and pointed to Plan México — Mexico's initiative to import less from other regions and add more domestic value — as evidence of alignment.
But he pushed back on the pace of US demands: "We would eventually like to have a longer-term certainty than having these annual revisions that obviously are not optimal for investors' certainty."
Velasco expressed cautious optimism about the negotiations while declining to set near-term expectations for a deal. Another round of talks is expected in weeks.
Balancing Act: Mexico Between Washington and Beijing
The basics: Plan México is the Sheinbaum administration's industrial policy to move Mexico up global supply chains by replacing low-value Asian imports with domestically produced goods, creating higher-wage manufacturing jobs.
Why it matters: Mexico's positioning between the US and China will shape whether North American reshoring delivers high-wage manufacturing or merely re-routes low-value assembly — a question with direct implications for workers and investors across all three USMCA countries.
Where things stand: O'Neill pressed Velasco on how Mexico balances the promise of access to the world's second-largest economy against US demands for decoupling and Mexico's own negative experience with the first "China shock." Velasco drew a sharp distinction between economic and political dimensions. Economically, Plan México aims to ensure Mexico does not remain stuck in low-value supply chain segments. Politically, he said Mexico intends to maintain its own relationship with Beijing.
"We have political relations with China. That is what I discussed with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. We've had a history of friendly, respectful political relations with China. We're trying to make sure that they continue," he said, adding that Mexico has opened a new consulate and had a productive conversation with Wang Yi.
The message was clear: respecting the US-China dynamic does not preclude Mexico's independent engagement with Beijing.
Self-Determination Doctrine: Latin American Diplomacy Under Pressure
Why it matters: As Latin America shifts rightward and more governments align with the Trump administration's regional security architecture, Mexico's constitutional commitment to self-determination and nonintervention makes it an increasingly conspicuous outlier.
Where things stand: Jeff Laurenti of the New Jersey Capital City Development Corporation raised the sharpest challenge of the session, noting that "the American invasion of Venezuela in January this year triggered virtually no response from the UN General Assembly, in marked contrast to the elder Bush's invasion of Panama to apprehend Manuel Noriega in 1989, which was overwhelmingly condemned by the General Assembly." He asked whether Mexico acquiesces in a US sphere of influence.
Velasco invoked Mexico's constitutional principle of self-determination, affirmed continued humanitarian support for Cuba, and called for dialogue-based political solutions in the region.
On Ecuador, the break is total. Ivan Rojedo of Terra Nova Partners asked about re-establishing relations; Velasco was definitive: "Ecuador violated international law, invaded our embassy, attacked, physically assaulted our personnel. So we view that as a grave violation of international law." Mexico has initiated proceedings before the International Court of Justice and has no plans to restore diplomatic ties.
Velasco also rejected the label of "middle power" that has gained currency in discussions of countries like Canada positioning themselves in a fragmenting global order: "We don't view ourselves as a middle power. We don't view the world in terms of powers. But what we agree on is that it's a moment where it's important to make sure that we have our relations with all the countries in the world."
On the broader region, Velasco described pragmatic cooperation with ideologically different governments on public health, economic integration, science and technology, and the reestablished relationship with Peru via the Pacific Alliance.
Energy Opens Up, Korea Moves In
Why it matters: The energy sector opening represents a significant evolution from previous administrations' resource nationalism, while the South Korea partnership diversifies Mexico's economic relationships beyond North America.
Where things stand: Arthur Rubin of Sumitomo Mitsui Bank asked about changes to foreign investment rules in energy. Velasco confirmed that legal and policy changes have enabled "mixed investments" in both oil and gas and electricity, with tenders and adjudicated projects already underway.
Chris Stockel, a retired government official, asked about the South Korean president's recent state visit and the 17 memoranda of understanding it produced. Velasco called it a highly valued partnership, noting the 16-year gap since the last state visit. The MOUs cover aerospace, artificial intelligence, customs information sharing, and education, plus a planned K-culture center in Mexico City and a Mexican cultural center in Korea. Velasco highlighted the significant presence of Korean companies in Mexico and Mexico's goal of growing exports to Korea.
Minor Items
- UN Secretary-General race: Velasco confirmed Mexico had proposed Michelle Bachelet as its candidate for UN Secretary-General. She withdrew days before the session. Mexico will assess remaining candidates.
- UNGA priorities: Mexico is co-chairing UNHCR Global reform efforts with Norway and meeting with Qatar and Switzerland on strengthening the UN's mediation role.
- Political economy philosophy: In an aside reflecting on his University of Chicago training, Velasco offered a broader observation: "You can have great economic ideas that look fantastic on paper in the abstract, but if you don't have a political economy, a majority of people that are benefiting from that, a coalition that supports that, public support for your policy, it might look great on paper, but when you try to translate that into reality, it's certainly not going to work."