Army Corps Publishes $17.8B Waterfront Flood Plan as Port Eyes Pier 70 Restart

The San Francisco Port Commission convened Aug. 12 with a full five-member bench for the first time, tackling two defining questions for the city's waterfront: how to defend it from rising seas and how to restart stalled housing at Pier 70. Commissioners also celebrated early momentum from the Blue Economy Initiative, a national award for Mission Rock, and voted unanimously to fast-track environmental review for flood defense projects.

• Army Corps completes eight-year study documenting $23B in flood damages, recommends $17.8B coastal defense plan over 30 years

• Pier 70 restructuring would cut affordable housing rate from 30% to no less than 20%, write off $50M in developer costs, and add 600+ units

• Commission unanimously approves seeking Chapter 29 exemption to save 6–9 months per resilience project phase

• Blue Economy Initiative draws 70 attendees and 8 lease applications in its first month

• Mission Rock wins 2026 ULI Americas Award for Excellence; Phase 2 design kicks off

$17.8B Flood Defense Plan Hits the Federal Register

The Army Corps of Engineers published its San Francisco Waterfront Coastal Flood Study in the Federal Register at the end of July, concluding an eight-year analysis that frames the largest infrastructure challenge the city has ever faced.

The basics: The study modeled flood, seismic, and sea-level-rise risk across a 100-year period (2040–2140) and produced a recommended plan for coastal defenses along the entire San Francisco waterfront.

Why it matters: Under a no-action scenario, damages could reach $23 billion. "By the end of the century we could lose up to 6% of the city's most developed landmass," said Brad Benson, Waterfront Resilience Program Director. The BART and Muni tunnels running beneath the Embarcadero face inundation risk by mid-century.

Where things stand: The recommended plan carries an estimated cost of $17.8 billion in today's dollars — up from $14.7 billion in 2024, driven largely by $3.7 billion in increased real estate valuations from Army Corps proprietary appraisals. The plan calls for elevating the shoreline to handle 1.5 to 3.5 feet of sea level rise on seismically reinforced foundations, nearly three miles of engineering-with-nature features, new stormwater management, and floodproofing at Fisherman's Wharf. Implementation would unfold over roughly 30 years, starting with the downtown segment south of the Ferry Building.

The Port plans to issue $115 million in professional design and engineering contracts — covering both northern and southern waterfront segments — over the next decade. A wrinkle: the Army Corps chief now requires 35% design maturity before recommending a project to Congress, and the Port is currently at 20%. Staff plan to use Proposition A funds and requested federal dollars to advance the downtown coastal resilience project to the 35% threshold.

On the advocacy front, Benson reported strong engagement from San Francisco's congressional delegation. Sen. Alex Padilla submitted a design funding request, and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi remains engaged. The Water Resources Development Act authorization vehicle enjoys broad support. The Port also participates in a national coastal city coalition. "It was actually started by Miami," Benson said. "They realized they needed help and so they recruited primarily along the east coast and the Gulf Coast."

The other side: Vice Chair Ken McNeely pressed on political headwinds, noting comments from federal officials questioning climate science. "I've heard comments from the Secretary of the Interior about denying that sea rise is even an issue," he said. "I wonder how the politics of that kind of political thinking might seep its way into our funding proposals." He also asked whether a broader coalition of coastal cities could provide collective leverage.

Benson responded that the coastal city network already exists, and the WRDA process has historically drawn support across party lines.

Commissioner Willie Adams urged the broadest possible coalition — naming the Chamber of Commerce, labor, environmentalists, and tenants — and identified specific congressional committees the Port should cultivate. "This is not Democrat, it's not Republican. This is bipartisan. And we have got to have a coalition," Adams said.

President Stephen Engblom steered the conversation toward financing, arguing the Port needs financial innovation to match its engineering ambition. He pointed to the insurance industry and major corporate stakeholders whose properties and workers are at risk, signaling coordination with the mayor's office to bring financial players to the table.

Decisions: The Commission unanimously approved Resolution 26-44 (5-0), authorizing staff to submit an ordinance to the Board of Supervisors exempting publicly funded resilience projects within Port jurisdiction from Administrative Code Chapter 29's fiscal feasibility study requirements. Staff said the exemption could save 6 to 9 months per project phase and avoid $31 million to $110 million in annual delay costs, enabling the Port to begin CEQA review for the flood defense plan this fall.

Public commenter Alice Rogers, president of the South Beach Rincon Mission Bay Neighborhood Association, praised the resilience team's community outreach, noting a presentation to her association the previous evening was "very well received." Public commenter L. Jenison raised concerns about environmental contamination at Pier 68, referencing the costly Hunters Point cleanup experience and urging testing and potential Superfund designation.

What's next: The Port will advance the downtown segment to 35% design and continue federal advocacy for inclusion in the next Water Resources Development Act. The Chapter 29 exemption ordinance now goes to the Board of Supervisors.

Pier 70 Restructuring: Housing Rate Cut, Height Boost, $50M Write-Off

Staff presented proposed amendments to the Pier 70 28-Acre Site Disposition and Development Agreement with Brookfield Properties — a sweeping restructuring designed to restart vertical development at a site that has been effectively frozen since the pandemic.

The basics: The Pier 70 28-Acre Site was entitled in 2018 for approximately 2,000 housing units. Since then, only one vertical project — Building 12 — has been completed. The site has been in what staff termed "down market delay" since 2021, with developer costs plus return growing past $400 million while revenues remain tied to vertical construction that hasn't started.

Why it matters: "We believe structural changes to the project are necessary to continue Phase 1 implementation and improve the viability of future phases," said Christine Maher, Port staff. Without restructuring, the math doesn't work: Brookfield's accumulated costs have outpaced any realistic revenue timeline.

Where things stand: The proposed changes are substantial:

• Affordable housing: The project-wide rate would drop from 30% to no less than 20%, aligning with current citywide policy. The 327-unit minimum for 100% affordable buildings would remain.

• Developer concessions: Brookfield would write off $50 million of Phase 1 return, and its future-phase return rate would fall from 18% to 14%.

• Density and height: Residential buildings could rise from 65 to 90 feet, adding 600-plus units to the project total.

• Firm deadlines: Specific outside dates for vertical parcel transactions would be established, with the first multi-family parcel (E2) to be taken down almost immediately after approvals.

• Phasing: Phases 2 and 3 would be divided into sub-phases for incremental infrastructure delivery.

Wyatt Donnelly Lando, Port staff, provided critical context on the affordable housing numbers: the citywide inclusionary rate has already dropped to 5% based on a controller's study. "It actually found no housing currently pencils within the city," Donnelly Lando said. He noted the total number of affordable units is likely to remain constant because the reduced percentage would apply to a larger denominator of 600-plus additional units.

Tim Bacon of Brookfield Properties expressed enthusiasm about moving forward with vertical development in 2027.

Public commenter L. Jenison asked about the relationship between the reduced affordable percentage and the height increase — a question staff addressed, noting the tradeoff is designed to produce roughly the same absolute number of affordable units within a larger project.

What's next: Port and Brookfield plan to return with formal DDA amendment approvals by the end of 2026 or early 2027. Commission and Board of Supervisors approval will both be required.

Blue Economy Initiative Finds Early Traction

The Port's Blue Economy Initiative, launched following a Commission action in July, drew approximately 70 attendees to a networking event at Pier 1 from maritime, environmental, technology, investment, and innovation sectors. The Port has received eight leasing applications in the first month, though not all are expected to materialize. Most applicants are small, short-term operators taking advantage of an incentive program covering up to 50% of lease costs.

"The prospective partners don't just want space, they're looking for ways to connect, to collaborate, to really create a supportive innovation ecosystem," said Executive Director Michael Martin.

Vice Chair McNeely asked about creating incubator or "foundry" space for early-stage entrepreneurs. Martin said staff are exploring private incubator partnerships and evaluating how to curate dedicated locations using underutilized facilities, but want to see initial results before making a specific proposal.

President Engblom highlighted the Crankstart $150 million initiative as a potential funding source, urging staff to explore partnerships with other agencies pursuing waterfront innovation grants.

Mission Rock Wins National Award; Phase 2 Design Begins

Mission Rock Phase 1 — the Port's collaboration with the San Francisco Giants and Tishman Speyer — won the 2026 ULI Americas Award for Excellence, one of nine regional winners. The project delivered 537 rental housing units during the pandemic, including 133 below-market-rate, plus office space for Visa, the Warriors, Coinbase, and Nvidia, and the five-acre China Basin Park. Phase 2 infrastructure design is now kicking off with redrafted transaction documents funded through Harbor Fund investments.

Commissioner Adams underscored the housing stakes: "This cannot become a city just for the millionaires and the rich and the billionaires. This started out as a working class town and it's got to be a balance."

Vice Chair McNeely urged Phase 2 planners to incorporate the nearby ferry landing opportunity to ease neighborhood congestion.

Minor Items

• Consent calendar approved unanimously (5-0): Resolutions 26-40 through 26-43 covering cruise terminal worker parking at Pier 19.5, a no-fee eight-year license for 36,300 square feet at the Candlestick Point development site, a $250,000 increase and 18-day extension for the Taylor Street Public Plaza contract at Fisherman's Wharf, and official naming of the new Taylor Street plaza as "Alioto's Plaza."

• Mission Bay Ferry landing: Construction contract awarded to a joint venture of Power Engineering and McGuire Hester. Completion expected late 2027 or early 2028, with electric infrastructure for zero-emission ferries. Martin confirmed the landing can handle commuter ferries, though SF Bay Ferry plans to start with event service.

• New commissioner welcomed: Executive Director Martin introduced Commissioner Vanessa Tapia Hartigan, a finance and technology executive whose career spans Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and co-founding Muse. She serves as trustee and treasurer of the Golden Gate National Parks Conservancy, filling the Commission's fifth seat.

• Waterfront activations: Pier 70 will host its first music festival with Pure Play San Francisco (produced by Raza World) at the new Elevation SkyPark campus. Red Barn Productions will debut the San Francisco Historium Spotlight — an immersive Gold Rush experience — at Pier 35 on Aug. 22-23.

• Public comment — water quality: Captain Maggie Hallahan requested REC1 water quality testing wherever kayaking and paddleboarding activities are set up along the waterfront, particularly at India Basin.

• New business flagged: Commissioners requested a broader waterfront activation strategy for Port-controlled properties, recognition of former commissioners Gail Gilman and Steven Lee at the next meeting, and future discussion of dredging.

• Adjournment: The meeting adjourned in memory of boating accident victims Clifford Bolsa, Carol, Tandra Magruga, and a dog that drowned in the incident.