SFMTA Confronts Record $307M Deficit, Warns of Gutting Muni if Voters Say No

San Francisco's transit agency laid bare the stakes of its deepest-ever fiscal crisis at a marathon budget workshop Tuesday: without two new tax measures on the November 2026 ballot, Muni could lose 20 routes, end regular service at 9 p.m., and shed more than 2,000 jobs. A newly secured $200 million state loan buys time, but board members made clear they want to burn through rainy-day reserves — not raid street-safety projects — to cover the gap until voters weigh in.

• $307M budget deficit — the largest in SFMTA history — hits in FY26-27 as pandemic relief expires

• $200M state loan announced, but agency still needs ~$100M more from reserves and fund balance to survive year one

• Board rejects flexing capital dollars to operations; directors call the practice "like heroin"

• Cable car single ride could be replaced by a $15–$17 all-day Muni pass; board pushes for low-income discount

• If both ballot measures fail: 20 routes cut, wait times doubled, 2,000+ positions eliminated starting fall 2027

• 5,000+ survey respondents back more Muni funding, but Hispanic/Latinx riders dramatically underrepresented in outreach

The basics: SFMTA's operating budget relies heavily on one-time pandemic relief funds that are now exhausted. Revenue grows at roughly 2% per year; expenditures — driven primarily by labor costs — grow at about 4%. That structural mismatch produces a $307 million two-year deficit in FY26-27, ballooning to more than $430 million over five years.