Clipper 2 Stumbles Force Commissioners to Demand Fix Timeline as MTC Adopts Bay Area's New Long-Range Plan

The Metropolitan Transportation Commission's March meeting produced unanimous votes and unanimous frustration. Commissioners adopted Plan Bay Area 2050+ — the region's updated blueprint for transportation, housing and climate through 2050 — but spent even more time grilling Cubic Transportation Systems over persistent failures in the next-generation Clipper fare system, with multiple members warning the problems could torpedo a November transit funding ballot measure.

• Clipper 2 bulk migration paused until at least May as missing passes, slow fare readers and 2,000 daily call center complaints persist three months after launch

• Plan Bay Area 2050+ adopted unanimously through four resolutions, locking in the region's investment framework and federal air quality conformity for billions in transit and highway projects

• MTC creates its first-ever operating reserve, setting a 50% cushion against federal funding disruptions

• CalEnviroScreen 5.0 challenged by commissioners who say the state mapping tool misses Bay Area disadvantaged communities and could cost the region billions in climate funding

• SB 63 transit oversight timeline set: Financial efficiency consultant report due April 1, first public oversight committee meeting April 17

Clipper 2 Crisis: Three Months In, Still Broken

The next-generation Clipper fare system, launched Dec. 10, 2025, was supposed to modernize how 27 Bay Area transit agencies collect fares. Instead, it has become MTC's most visible operational headache — and commissioners made clear they've lost patience.

Where things stand: Jason Weinstein, MTC Clipper Director, reported that 1.3 million cards have been migrated out of 18 to 20 million total. Account-based trips hit 4 million in February, representing 31% of all rides. But bulk migration — the mass transition of remaining cardholders — is paused indefinitely due to a cascade of unresolved defects: missing transit passes, broken auto-load features, system outages, sluggish ticket vending machines on BART and Muni, unreliable fare inspection devices on Caltrain, and call center volumes averaging 2,000 calls per weekday with 13-minute average handling times. Cubic targets May for resolving the most critical issues, with a fare inspection device software update scheduled for April 20.

Peter Montgomery Torellis, President, Cubic Transportation Systems, acknowledged the experience has fallen short: "The migration that happened is like a once-in-a-generation transition. The Clipper 1 system to the Clipper 2 system, the technology involved as well as the legacy technology that needed to be migrated — that's something that likely wouldn't happen here for another maybe 10 or 20 years."

AC Transit Sounds the Alarm

Commissioner Marilyn Ezzy Ashcraft, Mayor, City of Alameda, read excerpts from a letter sent by AC Transit detailing fiscal and operational strain from Clipper 2 failures. She drew a direct line to the November transit funding ballot measure: "What passage of that measure, assuming we get it to the ballot, requires is consumer confidence. And these experiences do not contribute to consumer confidence."

Commissioners Want Receipts, Not Updates

Multiple commissioners pushed past the standard briefing format to demand a new level of accountability.

Commissioner Gina Papan, Cities of San Mateo County, insisted that detailed progress reports come to the full Commission — not just subcommittees: "We need to be kept informed. We need to make sure this is going in the right direction here. You said 2,000 calls a day between five and 13 minutes. That is really not acceptable to consumers."

Commissioner Pat Burt, Councilmember, Palo Alto, called for a visible, public checklist of every known issue and its resolution status: "The notion that we every month or so hear general updates versus the seriousness of this and us having visibility on the tracking of here are all of the issues, here's the anticipated progress date, here's the actual progress date — we need that transparency."

Commissioner Margaret Abe-Koga, Supervisor, Santa Clara County, went further, calling for a full post-mortem of how MTC procured the system and whether fare structures should be standardized across all 27 agencies: "I would like to ask for a process where we have a full review of how we got to this point with this contract and what we need to do differently to have successful technology procurements in the future."

Commissioner Alicia John-Baptiste, San Francisco Mayor's Appointee, questioned why neither MTC nor Cubic anticipated the complexity: "It does seemed to me that from both an MTC standpoint and from a Cubic standpoint, we should have been able to anticipate that this was going to be complicated."

Caltrain, Universities Feel the Pain

Public commenters underscored the real-world damage. Jason Baker, speaking on behalf of Caltrain, noted that the fare inspection device presentation slide was nearly identical to the prior month's, suggesting a lack of progress, and urged MTC to move the April 20 software fix ahead of baseball opening day. Shannon O'Halloran, a university institutional pass administrator, warned that student passes failing to migrate are pushing first-time transit riders toward cars — exactly the opposite of the system's intent. She cautioned that bulk migration during summer could create chaos when thousands of new institutional cards are issued in fall. Roland LeBrun, a public commenter, flagged Caltrain tap-on/tap-off reader display failures, warning riders cannot tell whether they've tapped on or off and risk $75 citations.

Executive Director Andrew Vermeer noted that detailed schedules are shared at the Clipper Executive Board monthly but committed to keeping the full Commission informed.

What's next: Cubic's next critical deadline is April 20 for the fare inspection device software update, with May as the target for resolving enough issues to resume bulk card migration. Commissioners have secured commitments for regular full-board progress reports. A broader procurement review appears likely but has no formal timeline.

Plan Bay Area 2050+ Adopted After Three Years of Development

The Commission unanimously adopted Plan Bay Area 2050+, a limited update to the 2021 regional plan that sets the Bay Area's long-range strategy for transportation, housing, the economy and the environment through 2050.

The basics: Plan Bay Area is a federally and state-required regional plan. Without it, the Bay Area cannot demonstrate "air quality conformity" for transportation projects — a prerequisite for federal project approvals — and risks losing eligibility for SB 1 competitive state funding. The update reflects post-pandemic headwinds: tighter fiscal constraints, revised growth forecasts and new climate targets. It includes 35 strategies and 65 near-term implementation actions.

Why it matters: The plan achieves a 19% per-capita greenhouse gas reduction by 2035, meeting Air Resources Board requirements under SB 375. Its adoption triggers federal air quality conformity and aligns the Transportation Improvement Program with the new plan, keeping billions in project dollars flowing.

Where things stand: Key changes from the draft included a new implementation action (Action 61) committing to a Technical Advisory Committee to review the regional growth forecast methodology, merger of active transportation and Vision Zero actions, and a new Resilience Project List report consolidating sea-level-rise content. The final Environmental Impact Report found no new significant environmental impacts. The ABAG Executive Board had already unanimously approved the plan the prior week.

Growth Forecast Debate

Commissioner Pat Burt challenged the plan's projection of 2.5 million additional residents and 1 million new housing units, noting state agencies project no organic population growth: "We've had the State Department of Finance and Department of Transportation growth forecast for both the state and the region, which rather than showing massive growth by 2060, they're projecting no growth." He argued the region should seize the opportunity to prioritize affordability rather than plan for growth that may not materialize, and called for stronger emphasis on pedestrian-oriented communities: "Studies repeatedly show that the adjacency of those services is even more important to trip reduction than the adjacency to transit. And yet we call it transit-oriented communities rather than pedestrian and transit-oriented communities."

Commissioner Margaret Abe-Koga questioned the 750,000-person population reduction from the prior plan and its effects on RHNA housing targets and transit planning: "I was actually struck by the change in the predictions of population growth. Like 750,000 people is quite significant when we're looking at 8 to 10 million and almost 10%." Staff clarified that RHNA allocations are calculated by the state Department of Housing and Community Development using Department of Finance data, not Plan Bay Area.

Legislative Push: Longer Cycles, No EIR

Commissioner Gina Papan advocated for pending state legislation to extend the planning cycle from four years to eight, which she said could save $50 million per cycle and allow more focus on implementation rather than constant plan production: "These reports generally run about $50 million when we have to do them. So we are seeking legislation to extend that process eight years."

Commissioner Libby Schaaf supported the effort, zeroing in on the $4 million EIR cost: "The idea that we have to prepare an environmental impact report for a plan that is to meet our obligations to meet our emissions reductions mandates is really cuckoo."

Federal Regional Administrator Dorene M. Giacopini raised concerns about accessibility accommodations for autonomous vehicles, flagging the need for the next planning cycle to address emerging mobility technology.

Decisions: Four resolutions passed unanimously (For: 16, Against: 0, Absent: 5 on Resolutions 4748, 4749, 4750 and 4646 revised). The plan supersedes Plan Bay Area 2050 adopted in 2021.

What's next: The next full planning cycle (Plan 2060) is expected to begin in late 2026. Commissioners signaled they want stronger focus on growth forecast methodology, pedestrian-oriented development, affordability and emerging technologies.

MTC Challenges State Mapping Tool That Shapes $12.8 Billion

Why it matters: CalEnviroScreen is the state tool that determines which communities qualify as "disadvantaged" for cap-and-invest funding — dollars flowing to transit, housing, energy and environmental remediation. Getting it wrong means eligible communities lose access for a decade.

Where things stand: Executive Director Andrew Vermeer reported that CalEnviroScreen Version 5, released by the state Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, increased Bay Area qualifying tracts from 113 to 122 — but commissioners say that barely scratches the surface.

Commissioner Eddie H. Ahn, Executive Director, Brightline Defense, called it a "10-year struggle" and laid out the financial stakes: "It shapes over $12.8 billion of cap-and-invest funding. So 70%, a full 70% of that alone is channeled through this tool and through the disadvantaged community's definition, which is roughly $9 billion for transit, housing, energy and so much more." He named communities he said the tool misses: East Palo Alto, Marin City, the Canal area of San Rafael, Alviso, San Jose, Bayview-Hunters Point, Chinatown, South of Market, the Tenderloin, Mission District, Excelsior and Visitacion Valley.

Commissioner Myrna Melgar, Supervisor, District 7, San Francisco, described the opposite problem — the tool incorrectly identifying affluent areas: "The CalEnviroScreen tool identifies a bunch of parcels as disadvantaged communities, which we're definitely not, including the San Francisco Golf Course, which is a private golf course that requires a very high entry fee to be a member of."

What's next: MTC is preparing a comment letter before the April 1 deadline. A fuller update is expected at the April Planning and ABAG Administrative Committees.

SB 63 Transit Oversight: Commissioners Press for Transparency

The Commission approved Item 7D — pulled from consent by Commissioner Gina Papan — authorizing the Executive Director to transmit a state-required ridership report under SB 63 because no Commission meeting falls before the legislative deadline.

Why it matters: SB 63 establishes a new accountability framework for Bay Area transit operators. The law requires a Financial Efficiency Review, with an outside consultant report due April 1 and the new Independent Oversight Committee holding its first public meeting April 17. Phase two of the accountability framework — with deeper cost-saving mandates — is contingent on voter approval of a November transit funding ballot measure.

Papan pressed on whether the oversight meetings would be open to the public: "The transparency is very important here. Will those meetings that the chair just mentioned be public?" General Counsel Scott Spansale confirmed they are Brown Act public meetings and that operators must adopt early-action strategies from a prescribed menu.

Decisions: Passed unanimously (For: 15, Against: 0, Absent: 6).

What's next: Financial Efficiency Review consultant report due April 1. First public Independent Oversight Committee meeting April 17. Commissioners secured commitments that the full Commission will receive reports from the oversight process.

MTC Creates First-Ever Operating Reserve Policy

Commissioner Gina Papan, reporting from the Administration Committee, presented Resolution 4751 establishing MTC's first operating reserve policy at 50%, calculated on a six-month basis. The policy requires notification to the full Commission when reserves are drawn upon and includes a process for replenishing them.

Vice Chair Stephanie Moulton-Peters, Supervisor, Marin County, noted the policy was driven by federal funding insecurities experienced over the past year. Chair Sue Noack confirmed MTC had no prior reserve policy.

Decisions: Passed unanimously (For: 16, Against: 0, Absent: 5).

Minor Items

• Consent Calendar (Items 7A–7H, excluding 7D) approved unanimously (For: 14, Against: 0, Absent: 7).

• FY 2025-26 Productivity Improvement Plan (Resolution 4743) adopted unanimously, tying transit operator performance to SB 125 accountability measures.

• General public comment: Roland LeBrun expressed disappointment that Sen. Wiener will not pursue SB 79 cleanup legislation and requested emergency legislation to exempt mobile home parks from SB 79 impacts in the nine Bay Area counties.