San Mateo Braces for Record El Niño as Flood Gaps Remain

San Mateo is heading into what staff called potentially the strongest El Niño since tracking began in 1950. Bay levels are already running above forecast, and king tides will land on Thanksgiving, Christmas and MLK weekend. At a Nov. 2, 2026, special meeting, the City Council heard a wet weather readiness update and took no action. The update showed real progress in the drainage system and several gaps that won't close before the first big storms.

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• Bay levels running 1 to 1.5 feet above predicted tides, with holiday king tides ahead
• About 4,500 of 6,000 catch basins being cleared by fee-funded crews; new storage basins won't be ready until spring
• No USGS stream gauge on San Mateo Creek before the Nov. 10–14 storm window
• Shelters are ready to open at the city manager's call, fire officials say; SMC Alert is the primary warning channel
• City admits little outreach to private creek-side owners and promises a webpage and maintenance guide

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A Record El Niño Meets an Aging System

Why it matters: Higher tides can block storm drains from emptying. When that happens during heavy rain, water backs up into streets and homes. The worst tides fall on holiday weekends, when many residents travel.

Where things stand: Public Works Director Matt Fabry said the governor has declared a state of emergency, but the declaration comes with no local funding.

“Right now we are seeing levels in the bay that are exceeding the predicted tide levels by 1 to 1.5 feet continuously,” said Matt Fabry, Public Works Director.

NOAA outlooks lean wetter than average from December through March, with the heaviest risk January through March. The 6–10 day outlook points to significant rain around Nov. 10–14.

San Mateo Creek is the most exposed watershed. It is the only one in the city without a pump station, and at one point the Creekside Trail sits about a foot below tide height.

The prep work: Two dedicated staff, funded by the community flood and storm protection fee, are vacuuming catch basins and jetting pipes. They have covered about 4,500 of the city's 6,000 basins. Crews also maintain about 30 trash racks, trash capture devices and 11 pump stations.

• The city obtained permits to clear the 16th Avenue and 19th Avenue channels.
• It cleared Laurel Creek between 39th and 40th avenues under the governor's emergency proclamation.
• About 1,750 cubic yards were dredged from Marina Lagoon outlets.
• Staff is pursuing a jurisdiction-wide annual creek maintenance permit, which it hopes to have by next summer.

The gaps: The new wastewater plant and its 5 million-gallon underground equalization tank will be fully operational this wet season. But the old basins being converted to flow storage won't be ready until closer to spring.

A pump station model also found that the Marina Lagoon station does not meet current Hydraulic Institute standards. The longer-term backlog is large: the Storm Drain Master Plan lists 138 projects citywide.

What's next: Flood insurance policies take roughly 30 days to take effect. Residents weighing coverage would need to act well before the January–March peak.

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Council Presses on Neighborhood Flood Hotspots

Why it matters: Several locations council members raised flooded in the 2022 New Year's Eve storm. Some fixes are medium priority or years away, so those neighborhoods remain exposed this winter.

Where things stand:

Arroyo Court and San Mateo Creek. Councilmember Lisa Diaz Nash pressed on flooding at Arroyo Court. Fabry called the El Camino Real culvert a pinch point and said a flood camera is now installed.

The city is exploring a USGS stream gauge, which would need a council agreement. On cost, Fabry said: “I think it's costs that we can handle with our storm fund at this point.”

Diaz Nash then asked whether the gauge could be in place for this year's storms. Fabry's answer: “We aren't going to have it in before November 10th through the 14th timeframe.”

9th Avenue, Rosewood and Laurel. Diaz Nash relayed resident reports of chronic flooding in Glazenwood. “There is perpetual flooding there,” she said.

Fabry said the fix is in the master plan but not near the top of it. “It's a medium priority project, and so that's going to be something tackled much further down the road,” he said.

Creekside Trail. Councilmember Danielle Cwirko-Godycki asked about barricades on the trail and about working with the hospital to reduce risk at Arroyo Court.

Fabry said barriers are under consideration, with caution because debris could wash into culverts. Staff were scheduled to meet the Creekside Apartments owner the next day. The hospital maintains the trash rack at the El Camino crossing.

Laurel Creek and Afton Court. Councilmember Rob Newsom Jr. raised flooding concerns in these areas. Fabry pointed to vegetation cleared near George Hall Elementary. He called the U.S. 101 culvert on the 16th Avenue Channel a high-priority project that cannot be fixed soon.

Crystal Springs Reservoir. Diaz Nash asked whether the city is getting the cooperation it needs from the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission (SFPUC). “I don't think that we have any ability to control what level they operate the reservoir at,” Fabry said. He noted that reservoir levels are about 10 feet lower than before the 2022 storm.

Decisions and stakeholder impacts: No action was taken. Residents near Arroyo Court, Glazenwood and the 16th Avenue Channel face another winter without permanent fixes. They will rely instead on cleaning, monitoring and emergency response. The SFPUC's reservoir operations remain outside city control.

What's next: Staff will bring a USGS gauge agreement to the council.

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Who to Call When the Water Rises

Why it matters: Residents were unclear about whom to contact during the 2022 storm. Officials used this meeting to spell out the alert and reporting system.

Where things stand: Cwirko-Godycki asked whether the city could send citywide shelter-in-place alerts or open the Beresford or King Center emergency centers.

City Manager Alex Khojikian pointed to the city's wet weather activation group, which he said is “meeting biweekly right now currently.”

Eric McIntosh, Deputy Fire Chief of the Consolidated Fire Department, said shelters have been reviewed and are ready. “As far as opening up the shelters, that would be a city manager's decision whether we do open those up,” he said.

McIntosh named SMC Alert as the primary notification channel and said the department will add staff to its utility vehicles. His advice to residents: “When these storms hit, stay off the roads.” He also urged people to avoid downed lines and floodwater.

Newsom relayed county emergency services survey data: “81% of San Mateo County residents said that if they were told to evacuate, they would.” He also asked about lagoon levels, hotlines and the 2022 flood map.

Fabry laid out how to report problems:

• Emergencies: call 911.
• Non-urgent concerns: call the Public Works line at 650-522-7300.
• The My San Mateo app: best for non-urgent reports. Staff will also use it internally for dispatch and FEMA documentation.

Fabry said Marina Lagoon is lowered on a schedule to a minimum of 95 feet. He said he will give lagoon residents his cell number.

Neighborhood outreach: Three sandbag stations are open 24/7. Messaging is coordinated with the county Department of Emergency Management, Consolidated Fire, Belmont and Foster City.

Deputy Mayor Nicole Fernandez asked for more outreach in North Shoreview about the Eastside sandbag station. “So I can work with the city manager's office and the communications team to see if we can do some more targeted outreach,” Fabry said. Nextdoor posts were one option mentioned.

Cwirko-Godycki stressed that residents share the load, noting “there's also the personal accountability responsibility piece.”

What's next: Residents are urged to make a plan, build a kit, check sandbag locations and sign up for SMC Alert before the storms forecast for Nov. 10–14.

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Private Creek Owners Largely on Their Own

Why it matters: Many creek segments are privately maintained, and permitting is burdensome. Homeowners may not be able to act before storms arrive, and the city has no list of the owners it would need to reach.

Where things stand: Mayor Adam Loraine asked what communication private property owners next to creeks will receive.

Fabry was candid: “We have not done significant proactive outreach to private property owners on creeks.” He said a creeks and channels webpage is planned within a couple of weeks, and the city's consultant will develop a creek maintenance guide.

Loraine also asked whether the emergency declaration expands what can be done. Fabry said permits are technically required and that the declaration does not change the city's rights on private property.

Catherine Sheehan, Deputy Director of Public Works, agreed. “I think the governor's proclamation, our read on it is it's intended to expedite the work of local agencies, not necessarily private property owners,” she said.

Sheehan noted that emergency permitting pathways do exist. She suggested owners check their title reports to understand their maintenance obligations.

She also offered a model from elsewhere, where neighbors organize to help each other: “Some will form kind of like a Friends of the Creek community group to support other private property owners in obtaining permitting or developing resources.”

Decisions and stakeholder impacts: No new authority or funding is coming to homeowners, including those along Laurel Creek near Laurelwood Park. For now, their main help will be information and peer organizing rather than city intervention.

What's next: Watch for the creeks and channels webpage and the consultant's maintenance guide.

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Minor Items

• A fourth sandbag station at Fiesta Gardens International School depends on a license agreement on the regular agenda.
• The Adopt-a-Drain program invites residents to keep neighborhood storm drains clear.
• The staff report for the wet weather update is available here: Agenda Report.

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Looking Ahead

The first test comes with the significant rain forecast around Nov. 10–14. After that come king tides over Thanksgiving, Christmas and MLK weekend, and the heaviest storm risk from January through March. Pending follow-ups include the USGS gauge agreement, targeted North Shoreview outreach and the new creek resources for private owners.