Crime Plummets 34% but Homicide Spike Alarms SF Police Commission

The San Francisco Police Commission heard a tale of two trends Feb. 18: historic, across-the-board drops in violent and property crime set against a troubling surge in homicides that has one commissioner warning the city could be on pace for 80 killings this year. Alongside the crime data, commissioners drilled into internal-affairs findings, flagged a Flock surveillance database misuse case, and ordered a first-of-its-kind study asking whether the city's crime decline is actually changing officer behavior.

• Part One crimes down 34% year-to-date, with robberies off 33%, burglaries 43%, and motor vehicle theft 39% — but homicides have jumped to 6, up from 1 at this point last year

• Commissioner raises alarm over homicide pace, projecting it could reach 80 for the year; Chief says cases are unrelated, not a trend

• Internal affairs sustained-rate flip puzzles commission: Field Operations Bureau went from 64% sustained in Q2 2024 to just 30% in Q2 2025 — Vice President Benedicto requests seven years of data

• Flock surveillance database misused by an officer searching for a spouse's stolen car; image ended up on a personal Instagram account, prompting a conflict-of-interest policy overhaul

• Commission orders landmark study correlating declining crime rates with complaint volumes at both DPA and IAD

• Cases pending chief's decision hit a multi-year low of 66, as expanded commander hearings clear the backlog

Why it matters: San Francisco is experiencing one of the sharpest year-over-year crime declines in recent memory — yet the one category moving in the wrong direction, homicide, carries outsized political and community weight.