SF Hits Only 31% of Housing Goals as Funding Cliff Looms

The San Francisco Planning Commission confronted a stark affordable housing reality on April 16: the city has built just 31% of its pro-rata housing targets three years into its current RHNA cycle, and the GO bond money fueling the affordable pipeline is running out. Seven community organizations demanded new funding and land banking strategies. Earlier in the meeting, commissioners split 4-3 over whether to exempt downtown universities from institutional master plan requirements — a vote that exposed a deep philosophical divide over streamlining versus accountability.

• Affordable housing funding cliff approaches: GO bond money could run out by FY 2028-29 without new local revenue, threatening a 12,000-unit pipeline

• IMP reform passes 4-3 to exempt universities outside residential zones from master plan requirements; dissenters cite Academy of Art precedent

• Seven community groups demand land banking, expanded small sites, and dedicated affordable housing funding

• Potrero Hill project shrinks from 25 to 6 units due to construction financing crisis, frustrating commissioners

• Board of Supervisors unanimously denies illegal three-unit merger at Vallejo Street, reinforcing rent-control protections

• Union and workers push back against three Planning Department layoffs, citing strong revenue performance

The Affordable Housing Funding Crisis

The longest and most consequential discussion of the meeting centered on an informational hearing about San Francisco's progress toward its Regional Housing Needs Allocation goals — and the results were sobering.

The basics: RHNA is a state-mandated process requiring cities to plan for their share of regional housing production across income levels. San Francisco is in the first three years of its 2023–2031 cycle.

Why it matters: Planning staff reported the city has produced about 31% of its overall pro-rata targets. While above-moderate and moderate income housing hit roughly 25%, low and very low income housing performed somewhat better — 37% to 38% — thanks to recent local investment through GO bonds and ERAF allocations. But the pipeline is about to hit a wall.

MOCD Director of Policy Sheila Nickolopoulos delivered the most alarming data point: the city has invested $1.5 billion locally over the past five years, adding more than 3,000 new affordable units and acquiring over 1,000 through small sites. But that money is running out. "In the following 2027-28 year the number drops to about $130 million supporting seven projects, reflecting the spend down of the remaining GO bonds from 2019 and 2024 issuances," she said. By FY 2028-29, if no new local funding sources are identified, MOCD will have near-minimum funding for new loans.

Approximately 12,000 units sit in the affordable pipeline awaiting funding. Another 2,700 are under construction.

Community Groups Sound the Alarm

Seven organizations — SOMCAN, MEDA, Chinatown CDC, PODER, People Power Media, SOMA Filipinas, and the REAP Coalition — testified with a clear, coordinated message: the city needs land banking, expanded small sites acquisition, and a dedicated funding stream.

Daniel Cruz of the Mission Economic Development Agency framed the stakes in displacement terms: the Mission has lost over 12,000 Latino residents since 2000, and MEDA has more than 300 units of affordable housing ready to build but paused for lack of funding.

Zachary Friel, a low-income tenant and SOMCAN member, described applying alongside 8,600 others for 95 affordable units at 730 Stanyan — and currently paying 60% of his income on rent. He criticized the Prop I transfer tax repeal and inclusionary housing reductions as moving the city in the wrong direction.

Sharon Ng of the Chinatown CDC argued that reliance on inclusionary housing from market-rate development will never meet low-income RHNA goals, urging the city to move from parcel analysis to active acquisition of more than 1,200 suitable sites.

Priya of People Power Media cited the organization's "Who is San Francisco Building For?" report, which found the city is overbuilding unaffordable housing, with cost gaps of $38,000 in the Tenderloin and $32,000 in Chinatown.

Commissioners Demand Urgency

Every commissioner spoke, and none defended the status quo.

Commissioner Gilbert Williams delivered the most impassioned remarks: "What's concerning to me is the lack of urgency that I see around affordable housing — not only some of the issues that were brought up, but the lack of urgency around getting funding, about advocating for new streams of funding, new ideas that are needed." He also called on building trades unions to advocate more publicly for affordable housing.

Commissioner Sean McGarry pointed to Seattle's dedicated housing tax as a model. "If Seattle did specifically tax itself to get a designated pot of money funding for housing, I think we have to do that," he said.

Commissioner Derek W. Braun flagged Enhanced Infrastructure Financing Districts as a potential game-changer: "Hearing the exploration of the Enhanced Infrastructure Financing District, that's really perked up my attention. I don't know what the details are going to end up being, but it could potentially be a little bit of a game changer depending on its structure."

Vice President Kathrin Moore brought the issue to a personal level: "How does it actually affect somebody in their day-to-day life if you have to pay more than 50% of your limited income in order to have a roof over your head? I think that hits everybody hard."

Commissioner Lydia So offered a note of relative optimism, pointing out that San Francisco is achieving about 70% of its very low and low income RHNA percentage goals compared to other counties, and that the city's counting methodology is stricter than most. But she acknowledged the dire market conditions.

What's next: Staff noted upcoming BLA and LAFCO studies on social housing and affordable housing funding strategies. A potential state affordable housing bond may appear on the 2026 ballot. No action was required — this was informational — but the commission's unanimity on urgency suggests affordable housing funding will dominate future agendas.

University Master Plan Exemption Passes 4-3

A Planning Code amendment backed by Supervisor Dorsey to exempt post-secondary educational institutions outside residential districts from Institutional Master Plan requirements passed over forceful opposition from three commissioners.

Why it matters: The IMP framework has been one of the city's primary tools for monitoring how large institutions — hospitals, universities, museums — affect surrounding neighborhoods. Supporters say lifting the requirement for colleges in commercial zones removes a barrier to attracting schools like Vanderbilt University downtown. Opponents say it surrenders the very tool that exposed the Academy of Art's abuses.

Where things stand: Madison Tam from Supervisor Dorsey's office presented the legislation as removing barriers to attracting universities to downtown San Francisco. Staff recommended approval with anticipated amendments aligning school and post-secondary institution definitions and updating the Arts and Design Education Special Use District.

Public commenter Calvin Welch, a Haight Ashbury Neighborhood Council board member who helped create the original IMP framework, was the lone public voice in opposition. "The Academy of Art acquired thousands of residential units in commercially zoned areas for the purpose supposedly of student housing. It acquired more housing than it ever had students," he said. "The city used the institutional master plan to sue the Academy of Art and replace that housing back to a housing use."

The other side: Vice President Kathrin Moore, who personally oversaw the Academy of Art enforcement, argued the framework costs institutions nothing while providing critical public accountability: "I believe that there is nothing onerous about the institutional master plan as they exist. I believe that they provide reasonable guideposts and operational parameters and disclosure that is of benefit to all."

Commissioner Gilbert Williams invoked democratic principles: "One thing about having these institutional master plans presented to this planning commission is to shine the light on exactly what they're doing, what their plans are, and to hold them accountable in a public way. And I'll just remind everybody, democracy dies in the dark."

On the other side, Commissioner Lydia So championed the reform, saying she "wanted to encourage other good institutions to come to our city and invest in our new generations to continue to have a pipeline of diverse growth of occupation and job opportunities."

Commissioner Derek W. Braun said he was reassured that individual projects would still require project-level approvals: "What I appreciate is that it's not like this becomes a free-for-all. For the institutions that are located outside residential districts, they still will require project-level approvals."

Decisions: The commission voted 4-3 to recommend approval (For: Chair Amy Campbell, Commissioner So, Commissioner Braun, Commissioner McGarry; Against: Commissioner Williams, Commissioner Imperial, Vice President Moore). The ordinance now goes to the Board of Supervisors.

Texas Street Project Shrinks From 25 to 6 Units

A Potrero Hill housing development at 1053-1055 Texas Street returned to the commission for an SB 423 informational hearing — dramatically reduced from a previously entitled 25-unit, five-story building to two three-story buildings totaling just six units.

Why it matters: The project is a case study in how high construction costs and tight financing are undermining housing production even on fully entitled sites, directly undercutting the city's RHNA goals.

Where things stand: Project representative John Kevlin apologized for missing the initial hearing two weeks prior and explained the downsizing: the sponsor could not obtain construction financing, faced expensive PG&E transformer requirements, and encountered elevator costs that significantly impacted the budget.

Commissioner Sean McGarry was blunt: "I do not believe — well, I know it wasn't intended to be anything less than 10 units. Anything less than 10 units is just basically for profit. There's no affordable, there's no nothing." He said SB 423 was not designed for projects this small.

Commissioner Lydia So criticized the architectural quality and confusing plan documentation. Commissioner Braun expressed disappointment at the density reduction but acknowledged the financing challenges. Commissioner Williams appreciated the proposed street improvements but raised concerns about the transparency limitations of the SB 423 process. Chair Amy Campbell offered a counterpoint, noting that six units of housing is still a net positive.

Commission Honors TODCO Founder John Elberling

Commissioner Theresa Imperial proposed adjourning the meeting in memory of John Elberling, founder of Tenants and Owners Development Corporation (TODCO), who passed away on April 1, 2026.

Imperial detailed Elberling's policy legacy: Prop M (1986), the nation's first annual limit on high-rise development; Prop X (2016), requiring replacement space for development projects; and the housing balance ordinance (2015). "He has helped initiate, together with other land use activists such as Sue Hester, the 1986 Prop M, the citizen-sponsored initiative that created the first annual limit on high-rise development in the country," she said.

Commissioner Williams called Elberling "a legendary figure in the South of Market" who was "instrumental in uplifting many communities" and "concentrated on empowering low-income communities of color." The meeting was adjourned in Elberling's memory.

Workers and Union Push Back on Planning Department Layoffs

Three pending layoffs at the Planning Department drew pointed public testimony during general comment.

Jessica Nuti of IFPTE Local 21 read a statement from impacted analyst Jonathan So, arguing that permit revenues have reached 85% of prior-year totals while expenditures sit at only 74% — numbers that, he argued, do not justify cuts.

Diane Livia, a Prop F retiree working on the Transportation Demand Management program, described how her layoff would strand her on a fixed income and jeopardize a TDM program managing hundreds of active cases. She framed the cuts as part of Mayor Lurie's broader effort to reduce government and privatize city work. Both speakers urged commissioners to intervene with the mayor's office.

Minor Items

• 77 Broad Street discretionary review (two-unit addition) continued indefinitely, 7-0.

• Consent calendar approved 7-0: Cricket Wireless retroactive CUA at 3001 Mission Street and Framebridge formula retail CUA at 3822 24th Street.

• Board of Supervisors unanimously denied a CUA for an illegal three-unit merger at 524-526 Vallejo Street, upholding the commission's earlier de facto denial and reinforcing protections for rent-controlled housing stock. The property owner may proceed with a pending four-unit building permit, wait a year to reapply, or submit a new two-unit merger project.

• Self-storage CUA approved 7-0 at 535-537 Jessie Street / 1026-1028 Mission Street, converting a 34,000-square-foot building vacant since May 2024 — formerly a fund-transfer business serving the Filipino community — to self-storage. Zoning Administrator Corey Teague granted a variance conditioned on retaining the front lobby and storefront system. Vice President Moore urged community-oriented activation of the lobby space.

• Vice President Moore questioned whether the department's complaint-based enforcement system is adequate, particularly as a DBI-Planning merger is under consideration. Planning Director Sarah Dennis-Phillips acknowledged that nearly all peer cities operate similarly due to staffing constraints but committed to providing more information.

• Public commenter Georgia Schuttish warned that approved ADUs are being quietly merged back into primary units, citing a $5.7 million property sale, and urged that permit plans involving flats be stamped with Planning Code Section 317 restrictions.

• Draft minutes for March 19 and March 26 adopted unanimously.