Study Ties Richmond's 61% Drop in Gun Violence to ONS Fellowship
City Council • RichmondOctober 27, 2026
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UC Berkeley researchers told the Richmond City Council on Oct. 27, 2026, that the Office of Neighborhood Safety's Peacemaker Fellowship is associated with a 61% drop in firearm homicides and injury shootings since 2010. The council took no formal action on the study, but voted to extend the meeting to finish the debate. Earlier, the council heard new Chevron health-risk findings, pressure from police officers for an armored vehicle and a mixed review of the city's youth fund.
- 61% reduction in shootings tied to ONS in a peer-reviewed study; council members and critics pressed on credit and causation
- Chevron's estimated cancer risk is 37 in a million, more than triple the Air District's action level; comments close Nov. 23
- About 20 speakers, mostly police officers, urged a city-owned armored rescue vehicle; the council did not act
- Youth fund's first year delivered 29,000 program hours at 107 sites, but grantees flagged invoice delays
- Industrial safety ordinance update introduced 6-0, shifting enforcement to the county fire district
Berkeley Study Credits ONS, With Caveats
Why it matters: Richmond's violence-interruption model now has peer-reviewed backing, published in JAMA Network Open. That evidence lands as debates over sustaining ONS and funding police equipment run side by side.
The basics: Researchers used a "synthetic control" method. It builds a statistical comparison from 15 cities to estimate what Richmond's gun violence would have looked like without the program.
Where things stand: "The Peacemaker Fellowship, we found, is associated with a 61% reduction from 2010 to 2024 in firearm homicides and injury shootings in this city," said UC Berkeley Professor Jason Corburn.
The decline was 49% from 2010 to 2016 and about 66% from 2017 to 2024. Nationally, the decline was 18%. Researchers also cited ONS data showing 360 participants since 2020 and 41 interrupted conflicts. They estimated a return of about $6 per dollar spent, based on avoided homicides.
"There's not going to be one single city that is comparable or an exact match for Richmond," said Alice Bruno, a doctoral student at the UC Berkeley School of Public Health, explaining the comparison approach. The researchers said they showed an association, not the specific mechanisms behind it.
ONS Director Sam Vaughn distanced the office from victory laps. "Our office will never take credit for what's happened in this city," he said.
The other side: Councilmember Jamelia Brown asked why no California cities were in the comparison. Researchers cited data gaps and said cities with Advance Peace programs were excluded. Brown also noted the drop counts only killings in Richmond, not residents killed in other cities. She asked about the fellowship's stipends. Vaughn defended them: "Nobody's not shooting somebody for a check."
Councilmember Claudia Jimenez asked Vaughn about claims that violence fell because people died or left. Councilmember Cesar Zepeda raised gentrification and other factors: "How much of the changing Richmond went into the report?"
Councilmember Sue Wilson asked about methods and the program's funding ramp-up. She suggested the same technique could test whether automated license plate reader cameras reduced crime.
In public comment, public health researcher Juliette Lee praised the study and the program's return on investment. Richmond Police Officers Association President Ben Terrio praised ONS staff. He questioned how the study will be used, noting it does not measure police staffing or arrests, and raised concerns about its placebo test and COVID-era comparisons. Public commenter Claudia Citroën asked for raw numbers instead of percentages and alleged Jimenez had a conflict of interest. Jimenez replied that her involvement predated her council service. Public commenter Mark Wassberg attributed the decline to earlier homicides.
Decisions and stakeholder impacts: The council took no formal action on the study. It voted to extend the meeting to finish the item (For: 6 — Brown, Bana, Jimenez, Wilson, Zepeda, Mayor Martinez; Against: 0; Absent: 1 — Vice Mayor Doria Robinson). The findings strengthen ONS's hand in future funding talks, while the police union signaled it will watch how the study is used.
Chevron Risk Tops Air District Thresholds
Why it matters: If the final assessment holds, Chevron's Richmond refinery must file a risk reduction plan. Neighborhoods such as Point Richmond sit closest to the exposure.
The basics: Rule 1118, adopted in 2017, requires health risk assessments at refineries. "This is the most health protective rule in the country," said Supervisor John Gioia, an Air District board member.
Where things stand: The Bay Area Air Quality Management District's preliminary assessment puts maximum cancer risk at 37 in a million, against an action level of 10. The acute hazard index is 1.2, against an action level of 1.0. Chronic risk is 0.26.
Fugitive emissions, storage tanks and generators drive more than 70% of the cancer risk. The bioreactor drives more than 80% of the acute risk. The model uses 2021 emissions from routine operations. It excludes upsets, mobile sources and cumulative impacts.
"It's narrow because it calls into question 10 out of 266 different sources within the facility," said Dr. Rohan Radhakrishna, Air District Health Officer. If results stand, Chevron has "180 days to submit a draft risk reduction plan," said Ariana Hussain, Manager of the Air District's Risk Assessment Reduction Section.
The city's own role is limited. "The city's role to date with the HRA has been to support with getting the word out to Richmond residents and businesses," said Samantha Carr, City Environmental Manager.
The other side: Public commenter Jeff Kilbreath, an AB 617 steering committee member who helped create Rule 1118, called the report a disappointment. He said it fails to identify the sources behind chronic community health problems. Jenny Belisle, a District 2 resident with asthma, urged a one-stop, real-time, multi-agency alert system.
Jimenez tied the issue to a recent hydrogen sulfide release. "We didn't really get a shelter in place because we didn't know that, and that cannot happen," she said.
Wilson confirmed the study does not address asthma. She doubted Chevron would act voluntarily: "I think from prior experience we know that's not what they're going to do." Gioia pointed to the wet gas scrubber fight under Rule 6-5: "Chevron sued rather than trying to comply."
Councilmember Soheila Bana asked about exposure east of Interstate 80 and long-term health effects in the El Sobrante Valley. She also called for Richmond to have its own seat on the Air District board.
What's next: Public comment is open through Nov. 23, 2026. The council asked for a list of rules that apply to the refinery.
Youth Fund Delivers, Paperwork Lags
Why it matters: Article 15 of the city charter requires an annual evaluation of the Richmond Fund for Children and Youth. The fund has invested $15.8M since fiscal 2021, and this evaluation will shape the next grant cycle.
Where things stand: WestEd evaluators reported on year one of the 2025-2027 cycle. The fund allocated $6.7M through 37 grants. Grantees delivered more than 29,000 program hours at 107 sites, logged more than 15,000 encounters and collected more than 1,600 surveys.
Most grantees met survey-based benchmarks; slightly fewer met participation benchmarks. Forty-six percent of grantees said the Richmond Department of Children and Youth was weaker than other funders at processing agreements and invoices. Evaluators offered five recommendations. "The recommendations that are set forth by WestEd are things that we stand in agreement with," said Patrick Seals, Director of the Richmond Department of Children and Youth.
The other side: Bana pressed on invoice delays, transportation, objective academic data and eligibility for faith-based groups. She also asked about outreach to groups without nonprofit status: "Is it possible to have some outreach effort to inform people months in advance so they start their 501 and have an equal opportunity to apply?"
Wilson flagged a structural gap: "We can be in a situation where there's areas where there's kids but there's no 501 operating to provide services to those kids." She noted that the Carlson corridor's affordable housing has no providers nearby. Brown asked about test scores. Zepeda sought participant ZIP codes and a central clearinghouse of services.
What's next: Staff said sharing data with the school district depends on acquiring a system that holds student identifiers. A request for proposals for a needs assessment is underway. Staff said missed benchmarks lead to improvement plans, not clawbacks. Staff will share ZIP code and partnership breakdowns.
Officers Press for Armored Vehicle
Why it matters: A commendation for officers involved in the Sept. 3 shooting, in which Officer Justin Church was shot, became an organized push for a city-owned armored rescue vehicle.
Where things stand: About 20 speakers addressed the item, most of them officers and police union members. Capt. Elizabeth Bashan said only two patrol officers had rifles on Sept. 3, and the department had to request an armored vehicle from neighboring agencies. Officer Nathan Lonzo described officers pinned down by sustained gunfire. SWAT Sgt. Enrique Melgoza said the city has requested the county's vehicle nearly 30 times this year.
Terrio said 54 days had passed without action. Alexander Cain of the police union asked the council to fund a vehicle or set a firm deadline for a funding plan, cost and timeline. Some officers proposed a use policy with accountability built in. Police Chief Tim Simmons praised officers and honored Church.
The other side: Speakers criticized Mayor Eduardo Martinez over a reported remark that such a vehicle is scary. The mayor did not respond on the record.
What's next: The council neither deliberated nor took action on the request.
Safety Ordinance Follows Hazmat Team to Fire District
Why it matters: Enforcement of Richmond's Industrial Safety Ordinance, which covers refineries and four tank terminals, now moves to the Contra Costa County Fire Protection District.
Where things stand: The county hazardous materials unit moved to the fire district effective July 1, 2026, with the same staff. The amendments update references, fix typos and correct a reference in Section 6.43.095. They aim "to align the changes with those adopted by the County ISO and to delegate authority to the district to implement and enforce the Richmond Industrial Safety Ordinance," said Nicole Heath, Assistant Chief of the Contra Costa County Fire Protection District.
Bana asked about the ombudsperson position, which remains in the county health department, and about public knowledge of what is stored in tanks. Heath said facilities report hazardous materials every March. Tank terminal safety plans are not due until 18 months after guidance is issued. A council member questioned the arrest authority in Section 6.43.150. Staff said it was added in 2024 and has never been used.
Decisions and stakeholder impacts: The council introduced the ordinance for first reading (For: 6; Against: 0; Absent: 1 — Robinson). A study session on arrest authority and implementation was proposed.
- 23rd Street traffic: Items S3 and S4 were moved to Nov. 17 by consensus after staff committed to bring an action plan.
- City manager search: Staff announced in-person and Zoom sessions with the recruiter; applications are due Nov. 1.
- Consent calendar: Approved 6-0, with Robinson absent.
- Public works honor: APWA Northern California named Public Works Director Daniel Chavarria its 2026 Leader of the Year, citing about $5.94M in recovered grants.
- Proclamations: The council honored firefighters who responded to the Aug. 18 15th Street fires, where four family members died, and Soulful Softball Sunday founder Rodney Alamo Brown.
Looking ahead: City manager applications close Nov. 1. The 23rd Street items return Nov. 17. Comments on the Chevron health risk assessment are due Nov. 23.