Sherrill Challenges City on Crowd-Size Failures Ahead of Fleet Week 2026

San Francisco's Government Audit and Oversight Committee spent the bulk of its Sept. 3 meeting drilling into whether the city is ready for Fleet Week 2026 — and Chair Stephen Sherrill made clear he doesn't think the answer is yes, at least not on crowd-size planning. The hearing surfaced a fundamental governance question: who owns the estimate that drives every public safety, transit, and emergency decision for the city's largest events?

• Chair Sherrill says the city has been "off by half" on crowd-size estimates and demands the city — not event organizers — take accountability

• City agencies outline voluntary AV geofencing for Fleet Week but lack legal authority to mandate it for planned events

• SFMTA plans to roughly double F-line service, boost bus routes, and deploy 30 parking control officers for the three-day event

• SFFD will pre-position surge EMS units along the waterfront without drawing from citywide staffing

• Committee unanimously advances SFO surveillance camera ordinance for off-airport hotel check-in pilot

Who Owns the Crowd-Size Number?

Why it matters: July 4th fireworks and Red Bull Showrun both saw massive crowd-estimate misses that created transit gridlock and public safety strain. Fleet Week 2026 (Oct. 4–12) brings the Blue Angels back after a year away, and the chair is warning that no department has stepped up to own the number that drives every other planning decision.

Where things stand: Mary Ellen Carroll, Director of the Department of Emergency Management, told the committee that Fleet Week 2025 peaked at roughly 2,000 attendees — a low-water mark driven by the absence of the Blue Angels and a federal government shutdown — compared to 7,500 in 2024. She said DEM is still finalizing estimates with Fleet Week producers for 2026 and expressed confidence the city could handle a doubling of typical attendance.

Carroll outlined four improvement areas from the July 4th after-action review: "One is to strengthen AV mitigation and information sharing. Number two is to strengthen our advanced planning and resource alignment. Three is to improve real-time situational awareness and connectivity. And four is to plan transportation as one system around crowd size, local access, peak departure demand, accessibility, and the regional network."

But Chair Sherrill pushed back hard. "I think we've been off by half in recent estimates of potential crowd sizes over the past year," he said, pressing Carroll on who is actually responsible for generating the projection.

In his closing remarks, Sherrill was blunt: "It does not make sense for us to put one of the most important processes, crowd-size estimates, on the heads of the event organizer. They need to be involved, obviously, but that is up for the city to take accountability for. Because at the end of the day, the event organizer is not responsible for public safety. That's the city's responsibility."

The other side: Carroll noted that Fleet Week is a known recurring event with a 20-year track record, distinguishing it from the July 4th fireworks, which she described as unprecedented. "It is event that has happened before, whereas 4th of July was something that had never happened before," she said. She also noted that DEM is looking at events "more conservatively" but deferred final estimate responsibility partly to SFMTA and the ISCOT permitting process.

Decisions: The hearing was filed on a 3-0 vote (Supervisor Wong, Vice Chair Fielder, Chair Sherrill all voting aye). No formal policy action was taken, but Sherrill committed to follow-up — and pointedly noted the mayor's office was absent. "I know the mayor's office isn't here. I would have liked them to be here to talk a little bit about their role in capacity planning. I'll be doing some follow-up asking about that."

Voluntary AV Geofencing Exposes a Legal Gap

The basics: Under state law (AB 1777), San Francisco can only impose mandatory autonomous vehicle geofencing during unexpected emergencies — not for planned events. That leaves the city asking Waymo and Zoox to voluntarily restrict operations.

Why it matters: AV congestion was a major contributor to the July 4th egress failures. The city has since brought Waymo and Zoox representatives into the Emergency Operations Center during activations, but for Fleet Week, the restrictions remain a request, not a requirement.

Where things stand: Julie Kirschbaum, SFMTA Director of Transit, explained that for Outside Lands, the city collaboratively developed a perimeter restricting AV operations — effective because thousands of concertgoers exit from concentrated locations. Fleet Week is different: arrivals and departures are diffused across the northern waterfront. SFMTA is requesting AVs avoid Lombard Street (the US 101 segment through the Marina), Van Ness north of Broadway, and the Embarcadero north of Broadway — but cannot compel compliance.

"There are some very limited times under AB 1777 where the city is allowed to put up mandatory AV geofencing, but that's really for an unexpected emergency. So for these special events, it's really a voluntary opt-in," Kirschbaum said.

Supervisor Wong asked how agencies respond when AVs behave unpredictably in heavy traffic. Kirschbaum said SFMTA has established specific contacts within Waymo for real-time support during events.

What's next: The voluntary approach will be tested during Fleet Week. Whether it holds under significantly higher crowd levels — with the Blue Angels returning — remains an open question the chair signaled he intends to monitor.

Transit, Fire, and Police Gear Up for a Bigger Fleet Week

Muni Plans to Move the Crowds

SFMTA Director Kirschbaum outlined a service plan with roughly double the F-line frequency, 50% more buses on the 28/19th Avenue corridor, and 30% more service on the 49 Van Ness. About 30 parking control officers will staff the event Friday through Saturday, with 25 additional PCOs deployed for Sunday's Italian Heritage Parade.

"We find that when people have good experience taking Muni to a special event, they're much more likely to start using Muni for other trips," Kirschbaum said, framing Fleet Week as a ridership growth opportunity.

Chair Sherrill pressed SFMTA on protecting dedicated bus lanes and encouraged proactive ticketing for vehicles blocking transit right-of-way — a problem during July 4th. He also recommended pre-staged tow trucks, citing positive feedback from Outside Lands: "I don't think we're trying to make anybody's life harder, but blocking driveways is illegal. I would encourage us to revisit that again for this."

When Sherrill asked whether SFMTA is applying a "San Francisco as popular" multiplier to historical crowd numbers, Kirschbaum offered only: "I'll just say it's a comfortable cushion."

Fire Department Protects Citywide Coverage

Assistant Deputy Fire Chief Erica Brown described SFFD's approach: surge EMS units positioned along the waterfront viewing areas, with dedicated fireboat crews coordinating with the Coast Guard for all three air show days. Critically, these resources are additive — they don't pull from firehouses.

"We add resources dedicated to the event, allowing us to maintain full staffing citywide, so resources that are assigned to the event are not resources that are in our firehouses and on our streets," Brown said. She added that lessons from alcohol-heavy events earlier in the year led SFFD to request increased EMS resources in medical plans — "so that grandma in the Sunset gets care."

Brown also confirmed SFFD is "advocating that the estimates be included" in planning sessions, implying crowd-size projections haven't always been a formal input.

SFPD: No Days Off, Joint Command Post

Commander Chris Del Gandio of SFPD said no officers get the day off during Fleet Week, providing surge capacity without depleting station coverage. The department uses after-action reports from each year to adjust its approach.

"We always plan for more because it's easier to plan for more than to call up resources last minute. So we always plan on a bigger crowd size than what's estimated, so we have enough officers to have a safe event," Del Gandio said.

A joint command post co-locates SFPD, SFFD, and DEM leadership. For personnel not physically in the room, the department uses a Microsoft Teams channel for real-time updates. Del Gandio also described homeland security coordination including drone mitigation, radiation detection, and federal inter-agency partnerships — responding to Supervisor Wong's question about terrorist threat preparation.

Restrooms: 20% More Porta-Potties, but Is the Baseline Right?

Beverly Ng of the Recreation and Park Department reported the event permittee is increasing porta-potties by 20% to 64 at Marina Green (up from 55), with 14 at adjacent areas and 12 permanent backup restrooms — approximately 91 total. Chair Sherrill pressed on whether the baseline number adequately reflects pre-2025 crowd levels, and Ng committed to returning with historical data.

SFO Cameras Expand to Hotel Check-In Pilot

The committee unanimously advanced an ordinance amending SFO's surveillance technology policy to authorize third-party security cameras at a remote airline check-in and baggage handling pilot at the Hilton San Francisco Union Square. Diana Volek of San Francisco International Airport explained that the cameras record video but are not monitored live; footage is retained for one year unless needed for an investigation; access is limited to trained SFO staff and law enforcement partners; and personally identifiable information is removed before any public use. The pilot has already processed nearly 200,000 bags. No committee members asked questions and no public comment was offered.

Decisions: Passed 3-0 (Supervisor Wong, Vice Chair Fielder, Chair Sherrill), forwarded to the full Board of Supervisors with a positive recommendation.

Minor Items

• Legal settlements (Items 3–19): Nine ordinances and eight resolutions authorizing settlements of lawsuits and unlitigated claims against the city were forwarded to the full board without discussion or public comment. Passed 3-0.

• Fleet Week public comment: Louis Leuven, Executive Director of the San Francisco Fleet Week Association, highlighted the event's 45-year track record, its expansion into neighborhood events including a high school band challenge in Golden Gate Park and the Canine Heroes program at Duboce Park, and its pioneering 2010 partnership with DEM on joint military-civilian disaster response training. David Flynn, a public commenter who has attended Fleet Week from Davis and Oakland for years, urged better public communication about the event's educational value — particularly ship tours and meeting veterans — beyond the air show.