UNDP Chief Maps Development Through War Zones as Global Aid Architecture Fractures

Foreign Policy's Global Development Forum at UNGA 81 convened 14 sessions spanning conflict-zone operations, faith-based philanthropy, climate finance, and the future of aid — all against the backdrop of the steepest donor cuts on record. The most consequential moments centered on alternative financing models and operational innovations that could reshape how development reaches the world's most vulnerable populations for the next decade.

• UNDP Administrator Alexander de Croo details operations serving 6.6 million Ukrainians with electricity, 95% poppy eradication in Afghanistan, and the killing of 22,000 children in Gaza
• Islamic philanthropy leaders argue $600 billion in annual global zakat could fill a growing humanitarian gap as cutting aid becomes normalized
• UNOPS launches Global Grids Accelerator to unblock 2,500 GW of stalled renewables; says Hormuz fertilizer transit mechanism needs only 7 days to deploy
• ONE Campaign identifies $48 billion US-Africa trade gap as American favorability drops 6 points and China's rises 10
• Mexico and South Africa demand financial architecture reform as 3 billion people live in countries spending more on debt than basic services
• UNFCCC official says clean tech investment hit $2 trillion — double fossil fuels — ahead of COP31 in Turkey

---

Development in Reverse: De Croo Charts UNDP's Path Through Three War Zones

UNDP Administrator Alexander de Croo delivered the forum's opening keynote, describing an agency where 60% of a $5 billion annual budget now flows to conflict-affected populations — a reality he framed as a generation's defining challenge.

Why it matters: The scale of UNDP's conflict-zone operations illustrates how deeply war has reversed development gains, with civilian infrastructure now a primary target and the lines between humanitarian response and development programming increasingly blurred.

Where things stand: In Ukraine, UNDP has built decentralized, renewable energy grids designed to withstand drone attacks — a new face of war where power stations, not just front lines, are battlefield targets. "6.6 million Ukrainians are dependent on the work we do to continue providing them with electricity," said Administrator de Croo. In Afghanistan, a systems approach working with farmers on alternative livelihoods has achieved a 95% reduction in poppy production, while the agency continues advocating for girls' education under Taliban restrictions.

On Gaza, de Croo was blunt: "There's been 22,000 children killed in that conflict and tens of thousands who have lost their parents or lost their brother or lost their friends." He called for more access, Palestinian political leadership, and security.

The bigger picture: De Croo framed the cumulative weight of these crises as existential for the development project itself. "Peace and end of conflict is the basis of human progress. And unfortunately, today what is happening, it's not human progress. What is happening today is development in reverse," he said.

On financing, de Croo acknowledged declining official development assistance but argued the conversation must extend beyond public money to include international financial institutions, private investment, remittances, and domestic resource mobilization. He noted that more than half of least developed countries raise less than 15% of GDP in public revenue and highlighted the Tax Inspectors Without Borders program: "It's a bit like Médecins Sans Frontières, but it's not the doctor, it's the tax collector man."

On the U.S. withdrawal from UNDP funding, he acknowledged the shift but noted that the U.S. Trade Over Aid initiative aligns with UNDP's view that trade is important for development — a diplomatic framing that sidesteps the immediate budget impact while signaling institutional adaptability.

---

$600 Billion Question: Can Islamic Philanthropy Fill the Aid Gap?

A panel on faith-based philanthropy made the case that with 117 million people displaced and traditional donors retreating, Islamic giving represents perhaps the largest untapped humanitarian resource on earth.

The basics: Zakat — one of the five pillars of Islam requiring charitable giving — generates an estimated $600 billion annually worldwide. But most of it flows through informal channels with low return on investment, panelists said.

Why it matters: "Something that was previously a taboo in the aid world, which is cutting humanitarian aid, is no longer a taboo. That's a big change, actually," said Kim Elling, Senior Director of Strategy and External Engagement at the International Organization for Migration. With aid cuts normalized across multiple donors, faith-based networks offer access, proximity, and trust that formal humanitarian systems cannot replicate. Elling added that faith organizations bring "staying power, which is being in there for the long haul."

Where things stand: Dr. Tariq Cheema, Founder and CEO of the World Congress of Muslim Philanthropists, noted he organized the first-ever zakat summit at UN headquarters 14 years ago. IOM has since established an Islamic philanthropy fund to formalize these resource flows. Mahmood Khan, Global CEO of Human Concern International, emphasized that donor expectations are shifting from emergency response to sustainable development, reflecting the Islamic concept of sadaqah jariyah — continuing charity.

Panelists agreed that with displacement now lasting 5 to 15 years, Muslim communities — one quarter of the world's population — face two-thirds of global crises and possess the financial infrastructure to respond, if channels can be formalized and scaled.

---

UNOPS: 2,500 GW Stuck, Hormuz Ready, Political Will Missing

Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva, Executive Director of UNOPS, described an agency built on a model unlike any other in the UN system — fully demand-driven, 5,500 personnel across 130 countries, no grants or assessed contributions, and full cost recovery.

Why it matters: Two UNOPS-coordinated initiatives could reshape global energy access and food security if political barriers are overcome: the Global Grids Accelerator and the Hormuz Task Force for fertilizer transit.

Where things stand: The UN Secretary-General launched the Global Grids Accelerator, coordinated by UNOPS, UNDP, and Sustainable Energy for All, to address 2,500 gigawatts of renewable energy projects stalled due to grid bottlenecks — with only 3% of energy investment reaching Africa. Da Silva described UNOPS's operational niche: "Our fee is 4.2% on average. It's by far the lowest fee in the UN system."

On the Hormuz Task Force, da Silva described a monitoring and verification mechanism for fertilizer transit modeled on existing UN frameworks in Gaza and Yemen. The system is technically ready. "I need 7 days. In 7 to 10 days, if we get the deal with the parties in the conflict and the Gulf saying that we are ready, you can work, we are ready to put the monitors on the ground," he said.

The urgency is acute: 45 million people risk hunger and 30 million face poverty due to blocked fertilizer shipments. "Planting season cannot wait for diplomacy," da Silva warned. "You have big deals, lots of discussions, very sophisticated. But in the meantime, can we get some 5 or 7 vessels with fertilizers flow every day?"

What's next: UNOPS also hosts 17 organizations — including Sustainable Energy for All, Cities Alliance, Stop TB, and Rollback Malaria — as a platform provider, a model da Silva called "networked multilateralism." The Hormuz mechanism awaits agreement from conflict parties who prefer comprehensive deals over incremental steps.

---

$48 Billion Trade Gap: US Losing Africa to China One Visa Ban at a Time

Elizabeth Hoffman, Executive Director of North America at the ONE Campaign, presented new research identifying a $48 billion gap in potential U.S.-Africa trade — a number that frames the competition with China in starkly commercial terms.

Why it matters: The 2026 Afrobarometer report shows U.S. perceptions in Africa dropping 6 percentage points while China's rose 10, driven not primarily by aid cuts but by symbolic signals: the visa ban, tariffs, and the absence of U.S. ambassadors across the continent.

Where things stand: Hoffman emphasized several institutional levers: the DFC's reauthorization with over 100% increase in capitalization, the importance of value addition in critical minerals rather than raw extraction, and the need for the U.S. to match symbolic gestures like China's annual African ministerial visits. She noted that only 13% of Africans are even aware of the African Continental Free Trade Area — suggesting a massive information gap alongside the trade gap.

What's next: With 25% of DFC's portfolio in Africa, the reauthorization could be a game-changer — but only if paired with diplomatic engagement that matches the investment dollars.

---

Mexico and South Africa: The Debt Trap Is the Crisis

Ambassador Enrique Javier Ochoa Martínez, Undersecretary for Multilateral Affairs and Human Rights for Mexico, and Joanne Yawit, Head of South Africa's Just Energy Transition Project Management Unit, delivered a joint indictment of the global financial architecture.

Why it matters: Three billion people now live in countries that spend more on debt service than on health, education, and basic services combined. Mexico has lifted 13 million people out of poverty in seven years through the Plan México for energy independence — but rising debt costs and conflict threaten to reverse those gains.

Where things stand: Ochoa argued for respect of international law across multiple dimensions, making a striking connection: "Conflicts are the 4th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world." Yawit described South Africa's just energy transition, leveraging the country's sun, wind, and hydrogen expertise to build climate-aligned industry while addressing inequality and youth unemployment. She emphasized that South Africa's deep domestic capital markets offer more accurate risk assessment than international markets, which systematically overprice African sovereign risk.

Both agreed that private capital is part of the solution but insufficient alone — concessional finance is essential to level the playing field in non-traditional investment destinations.

---

COP31 Preview: $2 Trillion in Clean Tech, One Country Left Twice

Joanna McGregor, Chief of Strategy and UN Affairs at UNFCCC, offered the clearest preview yet of COP31 in Turkey, noting that clean tech investment reached over $2 trillion last year — double fossil fuel investment — while emphasizing that implementation remains the central challenge.

Why it matters: No country has followed the one nation that left the Paris process twice, signaling durable multilateral commitment even as domestic pressures mount globally. COP31 will focus on electrification as a global push including the Global South, and negotiations on a just transition mechanism agreed at last year's COP in Belém.

McGregor cited Spain's worker-union dialogues and Scotland's participatory budget processes as models for just transition. The UK is saving £7 million per day from renewables added in the last five years. She stressed that governments must underwrite risk in non-traditional investment destinations to attract private sector and multilateral development bank engagement.

---

Razom for Ukraine: Fatigue, Legislation Gaps, and Disinformation

Dora Khomiak, CEO of Razom for Ukraine, described the organization's work since 2014 with offices in Kyiv, western Ukraine, Vienna, Washington, D.C., and New York — and the escalating challenges of sustaining support as the war enters its fifth year with $200 million deployed.

Khomiak identified three interlocking threats: "The biggest — kind of look at it in 3 elements of the challenge. First and foremost is fatigue," she said, noting that awareness of drone attacks on civilian infrastructure is fading even as the attacks intensify. The second is the gap between legislation — such as the Lindsey Graham sanctions bill and the REPO Act — and actual implementation. The third is Russia's persistent imperial narrative, backed by billions in annual disinformation investment.

"I think it's important to recognize how interrelated security and development is. Ukraine is showing it to us not just every day, but every hour," Khomiak said. She noted colleagues must now travel by car carrying gas canisters because gas stations are being bombed. With 20% of the population expected to be veterans, reintegration will be a generational challenge.

---

Smart Warehouses and 24-Hour Response: The WFP-UPS-IDEA Model

Baron Segar, President and CEO of World Food Program USA; Nikki Clifton, President of the UPS Foundation; and Arif Yousuf, Chief Operating Officer of IDEA, described how private-public logistics partnerships are cutting the gap between disaster and delivery.

WFP operates as the UN's logistics backbone — thousands of trucks, hundreds of cargo planes and ships. A Caribbean emergency supply hub funded with partners including the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints now delivers food within 24 hours. Clifton highlighted that UPS responded to 80 disasters in a single year and described smart warehousing in India that reduces food waste through temperature, humidity, and CO₂ controls. Yousuf noted IDEA's $25 million, five-year commitment to WFP, with supplies prepositioned in three of five UN warehouses. The first tranche reached 243,000 lives.

All three stressed the importance of local partners and avoiding well-intentioned donations that clog ports — as happened after Hurricane Maria.

---

The Resilience Economy: Guatemala Roadmap, Colombian Crop Insurance

A panel featuring Mark Viso, President and CEO of Food for the Hungry; Amy Barnes, Global Head of Energy and Power and Head of Climate and Sustainability Strategy at Marsh; and Renato Dormit Godinho, Support Mechanism Director of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, pushed a concept with potentially far-reaching implications: treating resilience as economic infrastructure with quantifiable value.

Food for the Hungry partnered with Guatemala's Vice President's Office to create a national resilience roadmap mapping priorities to community vulnerabilities across sectors. Barnes described a Nespresso-sponsored crop insurance program in Colombia where smallholder farmers pay premiums through cooperatives, making the model self-sustaining through Marsh's Blue Marble subsidiary. Godinho described a coalition of 100-plus countries and organizations working on collaborative financing frameworks.

All agreed the civil society sector bears responsibility for 60 years of linear, time-bound projects that don't aggregate — and that current aid scarcity creates an opportunity to redesign development around platforms, insurance, and ecosystem building.

---

• OPEC Fund's country-led model: President Dr. Abdul Hamid Al Khalifa described how the fund built Malawi's first cancer treatment center within three years after the Health Minister identified 1,300 annual cancer patients with no treatment facility. The fund operates in 125 countries with 250 staff and a demand-driven approach based on national priorities.
• Rally Africa–Sterling One MOU: Emil Ekior, Founder and CEO of Rally Africa, and Olapeju Ibikwe, Executive Director of Sterling One Foundation, signed an MOU for a 2027 Africa Social Impact Summit in Lagos. Ibikwe argued that with 20%-plus ODA cuts, "philanthropists should not be seeing themselves as givers but as catalysts. So if I have $10 million to give out today, I should be thinking, how can this $10 million unlock $100 million?" Rally Africa is working with the Indiana Economic Development Corporation and corporate partners including Cummins, Eli Lilly, and Elanco to bring investment delegations to Africa. Sterling One launched a business coalition for education addressing 10 million out-of-school children.
• AJWS and faith-based justice: Tawanda Mutasa, President and CEO of American Jewish World Service, described grants to 500 grassroots organizations working on human rights, gender-based violence, and land rights across the Global South. He critiqued the State Department's $2 billion redirection to faith-based organizations, noting AJWS was not consulted and raising concerns about conditionalities around sexual and reproductive health rights.
• Germany's development engagement: State Secretary Niels Ahnen described opening GIZ and KfW offices in Syria after maintaining engagement throughout the civil war, noting that 800,000-plus Syrians in Germany create a unique bilateral relationship. On Ukraine, Germany is the largest development donor, building on pre-invasion decentralization projects that gave mayors resources and legitimacy. He warned: "We are retreating back into the silos also because of the enormous budgetary pressure. That's exactly the wrong thing to do."
• Ocean-climate solutions: Dr. Fatima Candace Valsingh, Vice President of Climate at Ocean Conservancy, noted the ocean generates $2.5 trillion annually and provides food protein to 3 billion people yet receives only 1% of climate finance. The Blue NDC Challenge now has 25 member countries working to integrate ocean-based solutions into Paris Agreement plans ahead of COP31. Ovie Mughelli, Team Ocean Coach at Protect Where We Play and former NFL player, described using athlete platforms for environmental advocacy.